Obama/Clinton Ticket?

There's been a lot of yammering recently about the extended Democratic primary race hurting the Dems and benefiting the Republicans. Of course, most of that yammering comes from the Republicans because if true, it would be damaging to the Dems. But I really don't think that is the case at all.

First of all, the extension of the race has kept both Hillary and Obama on the front pages and in the front of people's minds. A sense of familiarity is one of the keys to winning the presidency and there no question in my mind that both of the democratic candidates have increased on this score in past months while McCain, who has a cold enough image to begin with, has been hidden from view and lost opportunities to get people to think of him as a person.

Second, the Dems have had an opportunity to get out into states that are almost always irrelevant in primary season and been an obvious presence there. The tightness of the race has made people care more about the election and the candidates. Add to that the new voters that have been brought out by the primary and by Obama's candidacy in particular, and you have a substantial developing allegiance to the Dems that would not have been mobilized without the extended primary season.

Third, in both Obama and Hillary's speeches tonight, there were clear notes of conciliation and unity, which made me think about the possibility of an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama (although the former looks more likely at the moment). Then, rather than having a nominee half the party didn't vote for, you have a ticket that just about everyone has voted for. Given that all these people--including new voters and voters in late primary states--have already voted for one of them once, the dems would be heading into the general election campaign season with a more solid and more extensive base than anyone typically does on either side of the race. Those practice effects are not minor issues--once a commitment has been made and acted on, principles of cognitive consistency predict very strongly that it will be hard to reverse course later on. By their earlier action, voters essentially have committed themselves to do it again later. If Obama and Clinton would combine efforts, they could maximize a unprecedented level of this effect, while McCain has considerably less "foot-in-the-door" to exploit.